Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Why Trump Was Inevitable

In a recent article Why Trump Was Inevitable in The New York Review of Books, the political scientists Ronald B. Rapoport, Alan I. Abramowitz, and Walter J. Stone give - finally, as I've been waiting for this quite some time - a thorough analysis why Trump has become the Republican Presidential nominee, and why by January 2016 already he was inevitable to win. I recommend this article to get a better understanding why Trump's rise was inevitable. I will limit myself to showing three figures from this article, that each speak volumes to Trump's candidacy and his views. They are based on a survey commissioned by The New York Review of Books and carried out by YouGov of a national sample of 1,000 Republicans and independents:

These figures clearly imply that Trump was by far the strongest among the Republican candidates, notwithstanding the "anyone but Trump" movement; that Republicans and Independents believe that Trump is the only Republican candidate likely to win in November; and that Trumps controversial views on immigration, the Mexican wall and Muslim visitors to the US, obviously not only are strongly supported by Trump's supporters, they are also strongly supported by supporters of his Republican competitors. In other words, Trump's views may be much more acceptable among American Republicans and, more importantly, among Independents than the main stream media and establishment voices believe. If Trump's rise to Republican nominee was inevitable, what about his chances for the elections?

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