Tuesday, November 6, 2012

At the Eleventh Hour: Election Polls Revisited

Election Day in Philadelphia by John Lewis Krimmel 1815
Today is Election Day and it's finally the American voters' turn to speak and decide this election after a long year of way too many meaningless Republican primary debates, too much negative advertising, too many pundits keeping the media and citizenry occupied with tidbits, and Presidential debates which were basically ignored after the first one. Not to mention a barrage of obscene amounts funding two presidential campaigns, the money of which was spent on what exactly:to inform the voters or to fund solutions for the future of this country? Anyway, before you are on your way to the voting booth, here a few snapshots of leading pollsters. Let's review and at the end of the day see who will be right.

First, Intrade: with a 72% chance for a Obama win, and 303 electoral votes for Obama and 235 for Romney (270 electoral votes are necessary for the Presidency.)

Then, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog with a 91% chance for a Obama win, and 314.6 electoral votes for Obama and 223.4 for Romney.

Princeton Election Forum by Professor Sam Wang  332 electoral votes for Obama and 206 for Romney.


Last but not least a snapshot of three National polls (Politico/George Washington University 47%-47%; Monmouth University 48%-48%; and Rasmussen 49% (R) - 48% (O))

Granted those numbers are not all comparable, as in the end the electoral vote determines the Presidency, but in a previous post I already mentioned that Intrade and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight had a very successful trackrecord. Let's see if today's elections proves them right..

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