Hurricane Sandy Hits New York

Hurricane Sandy

It all started last weekend when my wife, diligent as ever, did preparatory shopping on Saturday (water, canned food, candles: all the necessary items to get through the unknown dangers of "Frankenstorm" as it was dubbed.) She also started clearing the terrace, so no lose objects would become hapless victims to the winds and fly into the streets. 
Sunday afternoon we heard that the Mayor had decided that the subways and buses would stop running at 7pm in New York City, as that's where we live. I was a bit skeptical: "why close tonight already? Sandy, the hurricane, is not expected to hit New York till Monday night, isn't it?" Little did I know. Later that Sunday afternoon, the streets of New York started emptying: visitors left town, residents prepared for the upcoming super storm and tourists returned to their hotels. Sunday night was quiet: no taxis honking, no rain drops and no wind worth mentioning.  Monday seemed even quieter, even fewer people on the streets, almost all stores and restaurants closed - with the exception of  a few Irish pubs in our Turtle Bay neighborhood -. Even though the weather didn't seem that bad, I had closed my office in Chelsea - in downtown Manhattan -, mainly due to the lack of public transportation, the lifeline for commuters and New York residents alike in order to get around in this, usually, busy and bustling city.

Monday night the wind started picking up:

Alternatives to the Polling Frenzy

The U.S. airwaves are filled with the latest polling numbers: Obama is up, Obama is down. Romney is behind, Romney is catching up. As many polls there are, as many differing results. For example, according to polling firm Rasmussen, Obama and Romney are even both at 48%; IDB/TIPP say Barack is ahead 47% to 45%; and according Gallup, Romney is ahead 51% to 45%.

Although, I'd wish the mainstream media spend more (or any) time on the important issues, and what the candidates'  campaigns actually stand for. I guess that's too much to expect in this time of media hype, and it's easier and more exciting to show the viewers and readers a horse race is going on than discuss a candidate's views on something more complex as climate change and how that might affect this country in the years to come.

Still, there are other and better ways of forecasting the outcome of the elections, than being distracted by the polling frenzy. One option is offered by Intrade, “the world’s leading prediction market": individual wagers can make a bet on who will be the next U.S. President.  A few weeks ago Obama was given a 79% chance for re-election and Romney 21% for an upset. After the first debate the numbers moved towards Romney, although the chances are still favorable  for a Obama win, now at 60%.  Intrade's track record has been pretty good: it predicted George W. Bush' win and the outcome of the electoral votes in 2004, and Obama's win in 2008.

Another alternative source of forecasting is...............